The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is far from over, and the world is bracing for a prolonged conflict. A leading military thinktank has made a startling revelation: Russia's war machine shows no signs of slowing down, and it could sustain its invasion of Ukraine well into 2026 and beyond.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia's military capabilities remain formidable, even as the war enters its fifth year. This is despite the economic and manpower challenges the country faces. The thinktank's director general, Bastian Giegerich, stated that Russia's ability to wage war is not diminishing, which is a cause for concern for Ukraine and its allies.
But here's where it gets controversial: Russia's defense spending is staggering. In 2025, the Kremlin spent a whopping $186 billion on defense, accounting for 7.3% of the country's GDP. This is more than double the proportion spent by the US and triple that of the UK. Such massive investments have allowed Russia to bolster its military equipment and recruitment, enabling relentless attacks on Ukraine.
The war, which began with Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion in 2018, has resulted in over 1.2 million Ukrainian casualties. Despite Western discussions about a ceasefire, Russia continues to intensify its attacks on critical infrastructure and population centers with advanced weaponry, including cruise and ballistic missiles and attack drones.
And this is the part most people miss: Russia's recruitment efforts are facing challenges. While it recruits tens of thousands of people monthly, the quality of its forces is reportedly declining. Experts suggest that recruiters are resorting to enlisting individuals with substance abuse issues and health problems, which could impact the military's overall effectiveness.
The thinktank also highlights Russia's growing missile and drone threat to Europe. Moscow is using the war to develop new tactics and weapons, such as an advanced Shahed-136 drone capable of striking targets across Europe. This development underscores the urgent need for NATO to invest in missile defense and anti-drone systems, as demonstrated by a recent incident where Russian drones crossed into Poland, causing widespread disruption.
In response to the escalating Russian threat, European NATO allies and Canada pledged to increase defense budgets to 3.5% by 2035. However, the IISS warns that this will require significant and sustained investments, which may prove challenging for many NATO members. Additionally, Europe's military dependence on the US is expected to persist well into the 2030s, as it relies on the White House for critical military intelligence, cloud computing, and space assets.
As the war continues, the world watches with bated breath, wondering when and how this conflict will end. Will Russia's military might prevail, or will Ukraine's resilience and international support turn the tide? The answers remain uncertain, but one thing is clear: the consequences of this war will shape the future of Europe and the world.
