Every offseason, it seems like at least one free agent who turns down a qualifying offer ends up regretting it. But this year, it was Zac Gallen who found himself in that unenviable position. The right-hander ultimately agreed to a one-year, $22.025 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to sources, which matched the qualifying offer he had initially rejected. However, due to deferrals, the net present value of his contract dropped to $18.7 million. And this is the part most people miss: Gallen’s situation became complicated because he was one of the least desirable free agents tied to draft-pick compensation after other players like Brandon Woodruff and Shota Imanaga accepted their QOs. While he received multiyear offers, none met his expectations for average annual value. In the end, he chose to return to Arizona, where he’s spent the last six-plus seasons after being traded from Miami for Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The silver lining for Gallen? He’ll hit the market again next offseason at 31, this time without a qualifying offer looming over him. This could set him up for a lucrative long-term deal, similar to other Scott Boras clients who’ve turned short-term contracts into big paydays. Speaking of Boras, here’s where it gets controversial: With nearly all his free agents signed, Boras has secured over $1 billion in contracts for the 2025-26 offseason. But how did his top clients fare compared to projections? Let’s dive in.
Take Dylan Cease, for example. His seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays drops to $189 million in net present value after deferrals. While his guarantee surpasses Tim Britton’s six-year, $174 million projection, his average annual value falls short. Alex Bregman’s five-year, $175 million deal with the Chicago Cubs is another interesting case. It’s one year shorter than Britton’s projection but comes with a higher AAV. And let’s not forget Cody Bellinger, who didn’t get the seven-year deal Boras pushed for, but his five-year, $162.5 million contract with the Yankees includes an $85 million payout in the first two years, with an opt-out clause afterward.
But here’s the real question: Did Boras overpromise and underdeliver for some of his clients? Japanese free agents Tatsuya Imai and Kazuma Okamoto fell short of projections, as did Munetaka Murakami, represented by Excel. Still, Boras did well overall—and so did Britton with his predictions.
Now, what does this mean for the Diamondbacks? Despite team president Derrick Hall’s earlier statement that payroll would likely decrease, the Gallen signing pushes it to $194 million, about $6 million above last year’s total. Owner Ken Kendrick has consistently shown a willingness to invest in free-agent starting pitchers, from Zack Greinke to Corbin Burnes. But with Gallen back, the D-Backs still need to bolster their bullpen, and their flexibility for other moves may be limited. One intriguing option? Using free-agent pitcher Mike Soroka in a relief role, with incentives in his contract accounting for this possibility.
Meanwhile, the Orioles are navigating their own roster challenges. With Jackson Holliday recovering from a broken hamate bone, they could carry both Ryan Mountcastle and Coby Mayo on their Opening Day roster. However, a logjam of right-handed corner infielders is likely on the horizon, which is why they’re exploring trades for Mountcastle and Mayo. And this is the part most people miss: Despite their $213.5 million investment in free agents, their projected Opening Day payroll is only $20 million higher than last year’s.
Finally, let’s not overlook the human side of the game. Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez recently fulfilled his mother’s dream by playing for her beloved Leones del Caracas in the Venezuelan winter league. After hitting a three-run homer in a victory over Magallanes, his mother declared her dream complete. It’s a heartwarming reminder that baseball is as much about family and passion as it is about contracts and statistics.
But here’s the bigger question: As teams like the Rockies start to rebuild with new coaching hires and players like Michael Lorenzen take risks on emerging organizations, what does this mean for the future of the league? Are we seeing a shift in how teams approach player development and roster construction? Let’s keep the conversation going in the comments—I’d love to hear your thoughts!
